Agent-Based Modelling of Hazards in ATM

This paper studies agent-based modelling of hazards in Air Traffic Management (ATM). The study adopts a previously established large database of hazards in current and future ATM as point of departure, and explores to what extent agent-based model constructs are able to model these hazards. The agentbased modelling study is organized in three phases. During the first phase existing agent-based model constructs of the TOPAZ safety risk assessment methodology are compared against the hazards in the database. During the second phase the same is done for existing agent-based model constructs developed by VU Amsterdam. During the third phase, novel model constructs are being developed specifically to model hazards that are not modelled well by the model constructs from the first two phases. The focus of this paper is on describing the model constructs of the third phase. All model constructs from the three phases together are also analysed with respect to the extent to which they model all hazards in the database. The results indicate that the total set of model constructs is capable to model 92% of the hazards well, 6% of the hazards partly and only 2% of the hazards not.